In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached a year-on-year variation of 4.3%, as a result of the favorable performance of Government spending at 7.6%, Exports at 6.2% and Household Consumption at 3.8%. Thus, in the last quarter of 2022, production in real terms exceeded the levels recorded in the pre-pandemic periods.
At the industry level, the main activities that reported the highest year-on-year growth rates were:
- - Oil and mines by 16.4%.
- - Mail and communications in 15.9%.
- - Education and social and health services by 12.6%.
- - Accommodation and food services in 12.3%.
Likewise, GDP grew by 2.3% compared to the previous quarter, driven by Government spending by 9.8%, Household Consumption by 2.5%, and Exports by 1.1%. On the other hand, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) showed a decrease of 1.3%, while imports grew by 1.1%.
Despite the losses caused by the protests last June, GDP showed an annual growth of 2.9% in 2022, exceeding the last forecast made by the BCE of 2.7%, published in September of last year. The Ecuadorian economy was mainly driven by the dynamism of Household Consumption at 4.6%, followed by Government spending at 4.5%; and Exports and FBKF by 2.5%.
At the industry level, 14 out of the 18 economic activities reported growth in 2022. Among the fastest growing sectors are: Accommodation and Food Services (12.2%), Aquaculture and Shrimp Fishing (11.8%), Mail and Communications (10.7%), Electricity and Water Supply (6.7%), and Education and Social and Health Services (5.8%).
For 2023, the Central Bank of Ecuador updates its economic growth projection from 3.1% to 2.6% due to the slowdown in oil exports. Thus, this growth projection would be driven by the recovery in investment and the dynamism of household consumption, so the following increases are expected in each of the components of GDP: Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 3.4%, Household Consumption at 3.2%, Imports at 3.1%, Exports at 2.5% and, Government spending at 0.5%.
According to this forecast, the 18 industries analyzed by the BCE will grow in 2023. The sectors that will report the highest growth are: oil and mines, construction, fishing (except shrimp) and accommodation and food services.
It is important to mention that the Central Bank of Ecuador will update growth forecasts for 2023 next September.
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